Scaling El Nino
Recently, the rock climber Alex Honnold took a route up El Capitan without ropes.There's no room to fail at that. I prefer a challenge that one can fail at, and then keep trying. This is the ascent to...
View ArticleENSO+QBO Elevator Pitch
Most papers on climate science take pages and pages of exposition before they try to make any kind of point. The excessive verbiage is there to rationalize their limited understanding of the physics,...
View ArticleConfirmation Bias
Someone long ago must have stated that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was not related to lunisolar (lunar+solar) tidal forcing. This negative result (or null result) is not...
View ArticleDeterministic and Stochastic Applied Physics
Pierre-Simon Laplace was one of the first mathematicians who took an interest in problems of probability and determinism. It's surprising how much of the math and applied physics that Laplace...
View ArticleENSO Split Training for Cross-Validation
If we split the modern ENSO data into two training intervals — one from 1880 to 1950 and one from 1950 to 2016, we get roughly equal-length time series for model evaluation. As Figure 1 shows, a...
View ArticleSolar Eclipse 2017 : What else?
The reason we can so accurately predict the solar eclipse of 2017 is because we have accurate knowledge of the moon's orbit around the earth and the earth's orbit around the sun. Likewise, the reason...
View ArticleMillennium Prize Problem: Navier-Stokes
Watched the hokey movie Gifted on a plane ride. Turns out that the Millennium Prize for mathematically solving the Navier-Stokes problem plays into the plot. I am interested in variations of the...
View ArticleENSO model for predicting El Nino and La Nina events
—Can capture vast majority of #ElNino and #LaNina events post-1950 by training only on pre-1950 data, with 1 lunar calibrating interval 🌛 pic.twitter.com/10PAirJAYD — Paul Pukite (@WHUT) August 17,...
View ArticleShould you trust climate science? Maybe the eclipse is a clue
An example of a prediction: "Looks like we're heading for La Nina going into Winter. That means I expect 2018 will not average much different from 2017, both close to 2015 level. Then a probable new...
View ArticleRecipe for ENSO model in one tweet
Full recipe for #ENSO. Seasonal phase lock. Biennial modulation. 1-year delay differential. Two lunar periods, Draconic(nodal) & Anomalistic — Paul Pukite (@WHUT) August 23, 2017 and for QBO Full...
View ArticleThe Hawkmoth Effect
Contrasting to the well-known Butterfly Effect, there is another scientific modeling limitation known as the Hawkmoth Effect. Instead of simulation results being sensitive to initial conditions, which...
View ArticleVariation in the Length of the Anomalistic Month
For the ENSO model, we use two constraints for the fitting process. One of the constraints is to maximize the correlation coefficient for the model over the ENSO training interval selected. The other...
View ArticleSearch for El Nino
The model for ENSO includes a nonlinear search feature that finds the best-fit tidal forcing parameters. This is similar to what a conventional ocean tidal analysis program performs — finding the...
View ArticleThe QBO anomaly of 2016 revisited
Remember the concern over the QBO anomaly/disruption during 2016? Quite a few papers were written on the topic Newman, P. A., et al. "The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015–2016." Geophysical Research...
View ArticleWhat Drove the Millisec-Level LOD Response to the 2015-16 El Nino?
Lambert, Sébastien B., Steven L. Marcus, and Olivier de Viron. "Atmospheric Torques and Earth’s Rotation: What Drove the Millisecond-Level Length-of-Day Response to the 2015-16 El Niño?." This figure...
View ArticleUsing Solar Eclipses to calibrate the ENSO Model
This is the forcing for the ENSO model, focusing on the non-mixed Draconic and Anomalistic cycles: Note that the maximum excursions (perigee and declination excursion) align with the occurrence of...
View ArticleSecond-Order Effects in the ENSO Model
For ocean tidal predictions, once an agreement is reached on the essential lunisolar terms, then the second-order terms are refined. Early in the last century Doodson catalogued most of these terms:...
View ArticleLimits to Goodness of Fit
Based on a comparison of local interval correlations between the NINO34 and SOI indices, there probably is a limit to how well a model can be fit to ENSO. The lower chart displays a 4-year-windowed...
View ArticleThe 6-year oscillation in Length-of-Day
A somewhat hidden cyclic variation in the length-of-day (LOD) in the earth's rotation, of between 6 and 7 years, was first reported in Ref [1] and analyzed in Ref [2]. Later studies further refined...
View ArticleEarthquakes, tides, and tsunami prediction
I've been wanting to try this for awhile — to see if the solver setup used for fitting to ENSO would work for conventional tidal analysis. The following post demonstrates that if you give it the...
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